Allegion PLC (ALLE)
Allegion plc is an American-Irish provider based in Dublin of security products, for homes and businesses. It comprises thirty one global brands, including CISA, Interflex, LCN, Schlage and Von Duprin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.85% per annum.
- ALLE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $132.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.52% per annum.
- ALLE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.82 (5.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALLE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.1839
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0700
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0700) – 1
= 32.31%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1839 + 0.0004 × 1,053 + 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(4.6981)
= $109.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1839 + 0.0004 × 1,053 – 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(4.4181)
= $82.94
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1839 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(4.9728)
= $144.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1839 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(4.6928)
= $109.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.85% per annum.
- ALLE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $132.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.9833
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0327
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.99%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9833 + -0.0007 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.9483)
= $140.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9833 + -0.0007 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.8173)
= $123.63
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9833 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.8368)
= $126.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9833 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.7058)
= $110.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.52% per annum.
- ALLE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.82 (5.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.