American Woodmark Corporation (AMWD)
American Woodmark Corporation (AMWD) is a leading manufacturer and distributor of cabinetry and related products for the kitchen, bathroom, and home organization markets, catering to both remodeling and new home construction sectors across the United States. With its headquarters in Winchester, Virginia, the company emphasizes innovation and quality in its product offerings, positioning itself as a key player in the home improvement industry. American Woodmark's extensive distribution network and strong relationships with builders and retailers contribute to its competitive advantage, making it an appealing investment opportunity in the growing home renovation market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.35% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $51.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.43% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of November 14, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.57 (4.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: November 14, 2025
a = 5.6319
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1203
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1203) – 1
= 61.77%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6319 + -0.0009 × 1,123 + 2 × 0.1203)
= Exp(4.8895)
= $132.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6319 + -0.0009 × 1,123 – 2 × 0.1203)
= Exp(4.4085)
= $82.14
November 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6319 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1203)
= Exp(4.2759)
= $71.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6319 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1203)
= Exp(3.7949)
= $44.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.35% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $51.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2025
End date: November 14, 2025
a = 3.3396
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0782
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0782) – 1
= 36.73%
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3396 + 0.0004 × 1,568 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(4.1864)
= $65.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3396 + 0.0004 × 1,568 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(3.8736)
= $48.12
November 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3396 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(4.2991)
= $73.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3396 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(3.9863)
= $53.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.43% per annum.
- AMWD price at the close of November 14, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.57 (4.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.