# Smith AO Corporation (AOS)

A. O. Smith Corporation is an American manufacturer of both residential and commercial water heaters and boilers and the largest manufacturer and marketer of water heaters in North America. It also supplies water treatment products in the Asian market.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.02% per annum.
- AOS price at the close of August 7, 2024 was $80.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.48 (4.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.57% per annum.
- AOS price at the close of August 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of AOS price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date:

End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × ) – 1

=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × ) – 1

=

#### August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.02% per annum.
- AOS price at the close of August 7, 2024 was $80.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.48 (4.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date:

End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × ) – 1

=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × ) – 1

=

#### March 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.57% per annum.
- AOS price at the close of August 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.