Smith AO Corporation (AOS)
A. O. Smith Corporation is an American manufacturer of both residential and commercial water heaters and boilers and the largest manufacturer and marketer of water heaters in North America. It also supplies water treatment products in the Asian market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.34% per annum.
- AOS price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $73.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.45 (11.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 94.73% per annum.
- AOS price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AOS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 5.3651
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0452
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0452) – 1
= 19.82%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3651 + -0.0007 × 1,282 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.5675)
= $96.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3651 + -0.0007 × 1,282 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.3866)
= $80.37
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3651 + -0.0007 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.2287)
= $68.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3651 + -0.0007 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.0479)
= $57.28
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.34% per annum.
- AOS price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $73.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.45 (11.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2025
End date: August 22, 2025
a = 0.9648
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0190
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0190) – 1
= 7.90%
May 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9648 + 0.0018 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.1762)
= $65.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9648 + 0.0018 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.1002)
= $60.35
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9648 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.3332)
= $76.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9648 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.2572)
= $70.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 94.73% per annum.
- AOS price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.