Gibraltar Industries Inc (ROCK)
Gibraltar Industries, Inc. manufactures and distributes construction products for the renewable energy, conservation, residential and infrastructure markets in North America and Asia. The company is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.72% per annum.
- ROCK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $78.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.58% per annum.
- ROCK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.37 (5.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROCK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: April 12, 2024
a = 2.5946
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0763
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0763) – 1
= 35.70%
March 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y676)
= Exp(a + b × X676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5946 + 0.0011 × 979 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(3.7755)
= $43.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y676)
= Exp(a + b × X676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5946 + 0.0011 × 979 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(3.4703)
= $32.14
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5946 + 0.0011 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(4.5559)
= $95.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5946 + 0.0011 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(4.2507)
= $70.15
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.72% per annum.
- ROCK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $78.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 5.7744
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0370
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.97%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7744 + -0.0008 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.4922)
= $89.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7744 + -0.0008 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.3441)
= $77.02
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7744 + -0.0008 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.3136)
= $74.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7744 + -0.0008 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.1654)
= $64.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.58% per annum.
- ROCK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.37 (5.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.