Trane Technologies plc (TT)
Trane Technologies plc is an American Irish domiciled diversified industrial manufacturing company. It is headquartered near Dublin, Ireland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.90% per annum.
- TT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $322.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.32% per annum.
- TT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.32 (0.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2023
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 2.7337
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0459
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.15%
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7337 + 0.0017 × 1,377 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(5.1848)
= $178.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7337 + 0.0017 × 1,377 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(5.0013)
= $148.61
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7337 + 0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(5.9524)
= $384.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7337 + 0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(5.7689)
= $320.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.90% per annum.
- TT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $322.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.0617
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0193
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0193) – 1
= 8.03%
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0617 + 0.0004 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(5.8221)
= $337.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0617 + 0.0004 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(5.7449)
= $312.61
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0617 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(5.8565)
= $349.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0617 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(5.7793)
= $323.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.32% per annum.
- TT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.32 (0.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.