Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)
Builders FirstSource, Inc., manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional home builders, subcontractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.86% per annum.
- BLDR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $120.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.65% per annum.
- BLDR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.22 (0.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLDR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 9.1049
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0587
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -57.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0587) – 1
= 26.46%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1049 + -0.0024 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.4336)
= $228.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1049 + -0.0024 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.1988)
= $181.06
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1049 + -0.0024 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.9008)
= $134.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1049 + -0.0024 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.6660)
= $106.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.86% per annum.
- BLDR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $120.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 17, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 12.2027
b = -0.0041
s = 0.0383
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0041) – 1
= -77.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.57%
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2027 + -0.0041 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.2064)
= $182.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2027 + -0.0041 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.0530)
= $156.50
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2027 + -0.0041 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.7877)
= $120.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2027 + -0.0041 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.6343)
= $102.96
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.65% per annum.
- BLDR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.22 (0.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.