Stock Price Trends

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)

in 2015, builders firstsource ($bldr) became the leading supplier and manufacturer of structural and related building products for new construction when it acquired probuild holdings, llc and its subsidiaries. now, as the largest diversified suppliers of lumber and building materials to professional builders, contractors, and homeowners, builders firstsource currently operates approximately 450 lumber and building product distribution, manufacturing and assembly centers in 40 u.s. states. builders firstsource and its companies sell a broad selection of building materials including; lumber (dimensional and sheet goods), drywall products, millwork, trusses, roofing and siding products, insulation materials, and hardware specialties. their manufacturing capabilities include trusses (roof and floor), wall panels, custom millwork, aluminum and vinyl windows and pre-hung door fabrication. we have the ability to sustain a long-term, aggressive growth strategy. our collective strength combines

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 191.04% per annum.
  • BLDR price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $183.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.49 (11.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.68% per annum.
  • BLDR price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $26.28 (16.68%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLDR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

September 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 191.04% per annum.
  • BLDR price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $183.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.49 (11.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

May 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

December 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.68% per annum.
  • BLDR price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $26.28 (16.68%).