Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) is a leading provider of innovative roofing systems, catering primarily to the residential and commercial construction markets across the United States, Canada, and Latin America. Headquartered in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, AWI blends cutting-edge technology with high-quality materials to deliver durable and aesthetically pleasing roofing solutions. With a strong commitment to sustainability and performance, Armstrong is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced building products in a dynamic construction landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.65% per annum.
- AWI price at the close of March 17, 2026 was $170.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.36 (6.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.63% per annum.
- AWI price at the close of March 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2022
End date: February 23, 2026
a = 3.4494
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0954
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0954) – 1
= 46.48%
December 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y434)
= Exp(a + b × X434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4494 + 0.0011 × 628 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(4.3107)
= $74.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y434)
= Exp(a + b × X434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4494 + 0.0011 × 628 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(3.9290)
= $50.86
February 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4494 + 0.0011 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(5.5651)
= $261.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4494 + 0.0011 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(5.1834)
= $178.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.65% per annum.
- AWI price at the close of March 17, 2026 was $170.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.36 (6.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2025
End date: March 17, 2026
a = 5.8238
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0408
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.73%
July 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8238 + -0.0003 × 1,595 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(5.3652)
= $213.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8238 + -0.0003 × 1,595 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(5.2020)
= $181.64
March 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8238 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(5.2873)
= $197.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8238 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(5.1241)
= $168.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.63% per annum.
- AWI price at the close of March 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.