Stock Price Trends

Fox Corp Class B (FOX)

Fox Corporation is an American mass media company headquartered in New York City.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.08% per annum.
  • FOX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $46.03 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.83 (14.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.68% per annum.
  • FOX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FOX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 7, 2024
End date: March 10, 2025

a = 0.7022

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0284

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0284) – 1
= 12.05%

February 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7022 + 0.0018 × 1,378 + 2 × 0.0284)
= Exp(3.2819)
= $26.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7022 + 0.0018 × 1,378 – 2 × 0.0284)
= Exp(3.1681)
= $23.76

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7022 + 0.0018 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0284)
= Exp(4.0087)
= $55.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7022 + 0.0018 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0284)
= Exp(3.8949)
= $49.15

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.08% per annum.
  • FOX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $46.03 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.83 (14.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 13, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 8.3441

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0365

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0365) – 1
= 15.74%

February 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3441 + -0.0025 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(4.0621)
= $58.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3441 + -0.0025 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(3.9159)
= $50.20

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3441 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(3.8755)
= $48.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3441 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(3.7293)
= $41.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.68% per annum.
  • FOX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.