Fox Corp Class B (FOX)
Fox Corporation is an American mass media company headquartered in New York City.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.16% per annum.
- FOX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $30.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 96.30% per annum.
- FOX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FOX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2021
End date: April 22, 2024
a = 3.7234
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0608
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0608) – 1
= 27.52%
March 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y449)
= Exp(a + b × X449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7234 + -0.0002 × 652 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(3.6929)
= $40.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y449)
= Exp(a + b × X449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7234 + -0.0002 × 652 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(3.4498)
= $31.49
April 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7234 + -0.0002 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(3.4254)
= $30.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7234 + -0.0002 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(3.1823)
= $24.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.16% per annum.
- FOX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $30.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 0.0463
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0173
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 96.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0173) – 1
= 7.15%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0463 + 0.0018 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(3.3034)
= $27.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0463 + 0.0018 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(3.2344)
= $25.39
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0463 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(3.4513)
= $31.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0463 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(3.3822)
= $29.44
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 96.30% per annum.
- FOX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.