Stock Price Trends

Warner Bros Discovery Inc (WBD)

Warner Bros. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.31% per annum.
  • WBD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $8.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.73 (50.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.75% per annum.
  • WBD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WBD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: January 19, 2023

a = 5.1623

b = -0.0021

s = 0.1674

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1674) – 1
= 95.36%

January 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y417)
= Exp(a + b × X417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1623 + -0.0021 × 604 + 2 × 0.1674)
= Exp(4.2367)
= $69.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y417)
= Exp(a + b × X417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1623 + -0.0021 × 604 – 2 × 0.1674)
= Exp(3.5671)
= $35.41

January 19, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1623 + -0.0021 × 1,347 + 2 × 0.1674)
= Exp(2.6863)
= $14.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1623 + -0.0021 × 1,347 – 2 × 0.1674)
= Exp(2.0167)
= $7.51

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.31% per annum.
  • WBD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $8.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.73 (50.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: April 29, 2024

a = 3.4172

b = -0.0006

s = 0.1301

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1301) – 1
= 68.26%

May 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4172 + -0.0006 × 1,089 + 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(2.9835)
= $19.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4172 + -0.0006 × 1,089 – 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(2.4632)
= $11.74

April 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4172 + -0.0006 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(2.5222)
= $12.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4172 + -0.0006 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(2.0019)
= $7.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.75% per annum.
  • WBD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.