Geo Group Inc (GEO)
The GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) is the first fully integrated capital real estate investment trust specializing in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities, processing centers and community re-entry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 155.90% per annum.
- GEO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $15.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.86 (5.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.90% per annum.
- GEO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.43 (10.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GEO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = -1.7975
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 155.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.23%
June 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,418 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7975 + 0.0026 × 1,418 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(1.9692)
= $7.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,418 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7975 + 0.0026 × 1,418 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(1.7363)
= $5.68
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7975 + 0.0026 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(2.8213)
= $16.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7975 + 0.0026 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(2.5884)
= $13.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 155.90% per annum.
- GEO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $15.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.86 (5.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: June 27, 2024
a = 5.0078
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.08%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0078 + -0.0013 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(2.8063)
= $16.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0078 + -0.0013 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(2.6233)
= $13.78
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0078 + -0.0013 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(2.6727)
= $14.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0078 + -0.0013 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(2.4897)
= $12.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.90% per annum.
- GEO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.43 (10.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.