Veralto Corporation (VLTO)
Veralto Corporation provides water supply services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.11% per annum.
- VLTO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $104.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.84 (4.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 131.87% per annum.
- VLTO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.05 (2.99%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VLTO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: July 19, 2024
a = 4.7153
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0163
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0163) – 1
= 6.76%
May 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y154)
= Exp(a + b × X154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + -0.0005 × 224 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.6402)
= $103.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y154)
= Exp(a + b × X154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + -0.0005 × 224 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.5748)
= $97.01
July 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y198)
= Exp(a + b × X198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + -0.0005 × 289 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.6089)
= $100.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y198)
= Exp(a + b × X198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + -0.0005 × 289 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.5435)
= $94.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.11% per annum.
- VLTO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $104.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.84 (4.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 1, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.9270
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0071
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 131.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0071) – 1
= 2.89%
July 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y185)
= Exp(a + b × X185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9270 + 0.0023 × 271 + 2 × 0.0071)
= Exp(4.5656)
= $96.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y185)
= Exp(a + b × X185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9270 + 0.0023 × 271 – 2 × 0.0071)
= Exp(4.5371)
= $93.42
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9270 + 0.0023 × 295 + 2 × 0.0071)
= Exp(4.6209)
= $101.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9270 + 0.0023 × 295 – 2 × 0.0071)
= Exp(4.5924)
= $98.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 131.87% per annum.
- VLTO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.05 (2.99%).