Stock Price Trends

Rollins Inc (ROL)

Rollins, Inc. is a North American consumer and commercial services company.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.82% per annum.
  • ROL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $46.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.79% per annum.
  • ROL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

Primary Trend

Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: July 24, 2024

a = 2.0341

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0397

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0397) – 1
= 17.22%

September 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0341 + 0.0010 × 1,502 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(3.6658)
= $39.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0341 + 0.0010 × 1,502 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(3.5070)
= $33.35

July 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0341 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(3.9996)
= $54.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0341 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(3.8408)
= $46.56

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.82% per annum.
  • ROL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $46.73 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 30, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 2.5511

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0279

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0279) – 1
= 11.83%

November 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5511 + 0.0007 × 1,588 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.7749)
= $43.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5511 + 0.0007 × 1,588 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.6631)
= $38.98

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5511 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.9499)
= $51.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5511 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(3.8382)
= $46.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.79% per annum.
  • ROL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.