H&R Block Inc (HRB)
H&R Block, Inc., provides services and products for assisted preparation of income tax returns and self-preparation of income tax returns (DIY) to the general public, primarily in the United States, Canada and Australia. The company is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 100.40% per annum.
- HRB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $56.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.45 (10.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.02% per annum.
- HRB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HRB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 18, 2023
End date: January 30, 2024
a = 0.7638
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0529
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 100.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0529) – 1
= 23.59%
April 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7638 + 0.0019 × 1,362 + 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(3.4637)
= $31.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7638 + 0.0019 × 1,362 – 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(3.2520)
= $25.84
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7638 + 0.0019 × 1,649 + 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(4.0103)
= $55.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7638 + 0.0019 × 1,649 – 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(3.7986)
= $44.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 100.40% per annum.
- HRB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $56.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.45 (10.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 16, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.3077
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0365
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0365) – 1
= 15.74%
August 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3077 + 0.0009 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(3.7475)
= $42.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3077 + 0.0009 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(3.6013)
= $36.65
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3077 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(4.0647)
= $58.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3077 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(3.9186)
= $50.33
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.02% per annum.
- HRB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.