Mister Car Wash, Inc. Common Stock (MCW)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.69% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of November 13, 2025 was $5.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 440.65% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of November 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2025
End date: October 29, 2025
a = 4.9497
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0443
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.40%
February 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y922)
= Exp(a + b × X922 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,343 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9497 + -0.0021 × 1,343 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(2.2058)
= $9.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y922)
= Exp(a + b × X922 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,343 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9497 + -0.0021 × 1,343 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(2.0285)
= $7.60
October 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9497 + -0.0021 × 1,587 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(1.6911)
= $5.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9497 + -0.0021 × 1,587 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(1.5138)
= $4.54
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.69% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of November 13, 2025 was $5.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2025
End date: November 5, 2025
a = -5.6742
b = 0.0046
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0046) – 1
= 440.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.33%
October 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6742 + 0.0046 × 1,565 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(1.6330)
= $5.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6742 + 0.0046 × 1,565 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(1.4904)
= $4.44
November 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6742 + 0.0046 × 1,594 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(1.7671)
= $5.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6742 + 0.0046 × 1,594 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(1.6245)
= $5.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 440.65% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of November 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.