Mister Car Wash, Inc. Common Stock (MCW)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.30% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $7.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.68% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 1.7893
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1171
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1171) – 1
= 59.77%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7893 + 0.0002 × 770 + 2 × 0.1171)
= Exp(2.1524)
= $8.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7893 + 0.0002 × 770 – 2 × 0.1171)
= Exp(1.6839)
= $5.39
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7893 + 0.0002 × 1,403 + 2 × 0.1171)
= Exp(2.2584)
= $9.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7893 + 0.0002 × 1,403 – 2 × 0.1171)
= Exp(1.7899)
= $5.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.30% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $7.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 8.6559
b = -0.0048
s = 0.0344
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0048) – 1
= -82.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0344) – 1
= 14.77%
March 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6559 + -0.0048 × 1,361 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(2.1864)
= $8.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6559 + -0.0048 × 1,361 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(2.0487)
= $7.76
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6559 + -0.0048 × 1,403 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(1.9846)
= $7.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6559 + -0.0048 × 1,403 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(1.8469)
= $6.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.68% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.