Stock Price Trends

PotlatchDeltic Corp (PCH)

PotlatchDeltic (NASDAQ: PCH) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) owning 1.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.90% per annum.
  • PCH price at the close of July 9, 2025 was $40.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.71% per annum.
  • PCH price at the close of July 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: July 9, 2025

a = 3.8039

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0668

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -1.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0668) – 1
= 30.63%

April 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y183)
= Exp(a + b × X183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8039 + -0.0001 × 265 + 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(3.9236)
= $50.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y183)
= Exp(a + b × X183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8039 + -0.0001 × 265 – 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(3.6564)
= $38.72

July 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8039 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(3.8415)
= $46.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8039 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(3.5743)
= $35.67

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.90% per annum.
  • PCH price at the close of July 9, 2025 was $40.56 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 30, 2025
End date: July 9, 2025

a = 5.6780

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0451

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0451) – 1
= 19.78%

January 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6780 + -0.0011 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(3.8927)
= $49.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6780 + -0.0011 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(3.7122)
= $40.94

July 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6780 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(3.7124)
= $40.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6780 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(3.5319)
= $34.19

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.71% per annum.
  • PCH price at the close of July 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.