PotlatchDeltic Corp (PCH)
PotlatchDeltic (NASDAQ: PCH) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) owning 1.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.15% per annum.
- PCH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $43.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.47% per annum.
- PCH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.46 (1.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 10, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.8362
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0703
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0703) – 1
= 32.49%
February 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y388)
= Exp(a + b × X388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8362 + 0.0000 × 562 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.9591)
= $52.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y388)
= Exp(a + b × X388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8362 + 0.0000 × 562 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.6777)
= $39.56
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8362 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.9190)
= $50.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8362 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.6377)
= $38.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.15% per annum.
- PCH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $43.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.1491
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0360
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0360) – 1
= 15.50%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1491 + -0.0008 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(3.9333)
= $51.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1491 + -0.0008 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(3.7892)
= $44.22
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1491 + -0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(3.7520)
= $42.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1491 + -0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(3.6080)
= $36.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.47% per annum.
- PCH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.46 (1.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.