Stock Price Trends

Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)

Weyerhaeuser Company is an American timberland company which owns nearly 12,400,000 acres of timberlands in the U.S. and manages an additional 14,000,000 acres timberlands under long-term licenses in Canada. The company also manufactures wood products. Weyerhaeuser is a real estate investment trust.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.98% per annum.
  • WY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $25.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.42% per annum.
  • WY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 31, 2021
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.4852

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0757

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -1.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0757) – 1
= 35.37%

March 31, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4852 + -0.0001 × 335 + 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(3.6182)
= $37.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4852 + -0.0001 × 335 – 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(3.3154)
= $27.53

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4852 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(3.5365)
= $34.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4852 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(3.2336)
= $25.37

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.98% per annum.
  • WY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $25.79 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 4.8336

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0459

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.13%

September 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8336 + -0.0008 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.5830)
= $35.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8336 + -0.0008 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.3996)
= $29.95

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8336 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.3913)
= $29.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8336 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.2079)
= $24.73

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.42% per annum.
  • WY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.