Rayonier Inc (RYN)
Rayonier is a leading timber real estate investment trust with assets located in some of the most productive softwood producing regions in the United States and New Zealand.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.82% per annum.
- RYN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $24.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.98% per annum.
- RYN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RYN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2021
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.5073
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0712
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0712) – 1
= 32.94%
May 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5073 + -0.0001 × 370 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(3.5996)
= $36.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5073 + -0.0001 × 370 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(3.3148)
= $27.52
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5073 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(3.4026)
= $30.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5073 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(3.1179)
= $22.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.82% per annum.
- RYN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $24.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.2595
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0639
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0639) – 1
= 29.11%
April 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y749)
= Exp(a + b × X749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2595 + 0.0000 × 1,086 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(3.4162)
= $30.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y749)
= Exp(a + b × X749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2595 + 0.0000 × 1,086 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(3.1608)
= $23.59
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2595 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(3.4360)
= $31.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2595 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(3.1805)
= $24.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.98% per annum.
- RYN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.