R1 RCM Inc (RCM)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.59% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.49% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 17, 2020
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.6866
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1952
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1952) – 1
= 118.30%
December 17, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6866 + -0.0007 × 510 + 2 × 0.1952)
= Exp(3.7192)
= $41.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6866 + -0.0007 × 510 – 2 × 0.1952)
= Exp(2.9385)
= $18.89
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6866 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1952)
= Exp(2.7961)
= $16.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6866 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1952)
= Exp(2.0154)
= $7.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.59% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.8505
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0809
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0809) – 1
= 38.23%
November 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8505 + 0.0010 × 1,560 + 2 × 0.0809)
= Exp(2.4958)
= $12.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8505 + 0.0010 × 1,560 – 2 × 0.0809)
= Exp(2.1721)
= $8.78
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8505 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0809)
= Exp(2.7488)
= $15.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8505 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0809)
= Exp(2.4250)
= $11.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.49% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.