R1 RCM Inc (RCM)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.50% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $14.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.61% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 17, 2020
End date: July 31, 2024
a = 3.6495
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1950
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1950) – 1
= 118.15%
December 17, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6495 + -0.0007 × 461 + 2 × 0.1950)
= Exp(3.7175)
= $41.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6495 + -0.0007 × 461 – 2 × 0.1950)
= Exp(2.9375)
= $18.87
July 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6495 + -0.0007 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.1950)
= Exp(2.7942)
= $16.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6495 + -0.0007 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.1950)
= Exp(2.0142)
= $7.49
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.50% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $14.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: September 12, 2024
a = 2.0977
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0018
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0018) – 1
= 0.71%
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0977 + 0.0003 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0018)
= Exp(2.6395)
= $14.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0977 + 0.0003 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0018)
= Exp(2.6324)
= $13.91
September 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0977 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0018)
= Exp(2.6509)
= $14.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0977 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0018)
= Exp(2.6438)
= $14.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.61% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.