R1 RCM Inc (RCM)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.42% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $11.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 67.22% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 17, 2020
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 3.7679
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1987
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1987) – 1
= 121.40%
December 17, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y404)
= Exp(a + b × X404 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7679 + -0.0007 × 583 + 2 × 0.1987)
= Exp(3.7390)
= $42.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y404)
= Exp(a + b × X404 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7679 + -0.0007 × 583 – 2 × 0.1987)
= Exp(2.9442)
= $19.00
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7679 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1987)
= Exp(2.8301)
= $16.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7679 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1987)
= Exp(2.0353)
= $7.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.42% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $11.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2023
End date: May 13, 2024
a = -0.0037
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0866
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.39%
November 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0037 + 0.0014 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(2.4754)
= $11.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0037 + 0.0014 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(2.1290)
= $8.41
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0037 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(2.7416)
= $15.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0037 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(2.3953)
= $10.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 67.22% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.