# R1 RCM Inc (RCM)

None

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.50% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $14.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.61% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of RCM price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: December 17, 2020

End date: July 31, 2024

a = 3.6495

b = -0.0007

s = 0.1950

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1

= -22.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1950) – 1

= 118.15%

#### December 17, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{319})

= Exp(a + b × X_{319} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 461 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.6495 + -0.0007 × 461 + 2 × 0.1950)

= Exp(3.7175)

= $41.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{319})

= Exp(a + b × X_{319} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 461 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.6495 + -0.0007 × 461 – 2 × 0.1950)

= Exp(2.9375)

= $18.87

#### July 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,227})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,227} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.6495 + -0.0007 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.1950)

= Exp(2.7942)

= $16.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,227})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,227} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.6495 + -0.0007 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.1950)

= Exp(2.0142)

= $7.49

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.50% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $14.12 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: August 5, 2024

End date: September 12, 2024

a = 2.0977

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0018

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1

= 11.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0018) – 1

= 0.71%

#### August 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,230})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,230} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.0977 + 0.0003 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0018)

= Exp(2.6395)

= $14.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,230})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,230} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.0977 + 0.0003 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0018)

= Exp(2.6324)

= $13.91

#### September 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.0977 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0018)

= Exp(2.6509)

= $14.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.0977 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0018)

= Exp(2.6438)

= $14.07

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.61% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.