Stock Price Trends

Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF)

Raymond James Financial is an American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company providing financial services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities through its subsidiary companies that engage primarily in investment and financial planning, in addition to investment banking and asset management.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.51% per annum.
  • RJF price at the close of June 14, 2024 was $115.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.86% per annum.
  • RJF price at the close of June 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RJF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: February 26, 2024

a = 4.3476

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0816

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0816) – 1
= 38.61%

April 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y452)
= Exp(a + b × X452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3476 + 0.0002 × 654 + 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.6405)
= $103.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y452)
= Exp(a + b × X452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3476 + 0.0002 × 654 – 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.3140)
= $74.74

February 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3476 + 0.0002 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.8509)
= $127.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3476 + 0.0002 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(4.5244)
= $92.24

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.51% per annum.
  • RJF price at the close of June 14, 2024 was $115.67 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: June 10, 2024

a = 3.3869

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0491

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.69%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3869 + 0.0008 × 1,362 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.5733)
= $96.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3869 + 0.0008 × 1,362 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.3770)
= $79.60

June 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3869 + 0.0008 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.9392)
= $139.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3869 + 0.0008 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.7430)
= $114.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.86% per annum.
  • RJF price at the close of June 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.