Smurfit WestRock plc (SW)
Smurfit WestRock plc is a leading global provider of innovative paper-based packaging solutions, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. The company specializes in the manufacture, distribution, and sale of high-quality containerboard and corrugated containers, serving diverse sectors such as food and beverage, consumer goods, and industrial markets. With a strong commitment to sustainability and efficiency, Smurfit WestRock leverages advanced technology and processes to enhance product performance and reduce environmental impact, positioning itself as a key player in the rapidly evolving packaging industry. The company operates internationally, showcasing its capability to adapt to the dynamic needs of its customers while driving value across its robust supply chain.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.91% per annum.
- SW price at the close of December 10, 2025 was $37.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.35 (3.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 307.70% per annum.
- SW price at the close of December 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2025
End date: December 2, 2025
a = 5.2537
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -70.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.27%
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2537 + -0.0034 × 410 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(3.9506)
= $51.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2537 + -0.0034 × 410 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(3.7829)
= $43.94
December 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2537 + -0.0034 × 512 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(3.6056)
= $36.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2537 + -0.0034 × 512 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(3.4378)
= $31.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.91% per annum.
- SW price at the close of December 10, 2025 was $37.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.35 (3.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2025
End date: December 10, 2025
a = 1.5985
b = 0.0039
s = 0.0202
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 307.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0202) – 1
= 8.43%
November 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y343)
= Exp(a + b × X343 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5985 + 0.0039 × 497 + 2 × 0.0202)
= Exp(3.5526)
= $34.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y343)
= Exp(a + b × X343 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5985 + 0.0039 × 497 – 2 × 0.0202)
= Exp(3.4716)
= $32.19
December 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y359)
= Exp(a + b × X359 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5985 + 0.0039 × 520 + 2 × 0.0202)
= Exp(3.6412)
= $38.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y359)
= Exp(a + b × X359 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5985 + 0.0039 × 520 – 2 × 0.0202)
= Exp(3.5602)
= $35.17
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 307.70% per annum.
- SW price at the close of December 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.