Smurfit WestRock plc (SW)
Smurfit Westrock Plc, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.09% per annum.
- SW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $42.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 157.95% per annum.
- SW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 4.7649
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0448
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0448) – 1
= 19.61%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7649 + -0.0037 × 197 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.1254)
= $61.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7649 + -0.0037 × 197 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(3.9464)
= $51.75
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y201)
= Exp(a + b × X201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7649 + -0.0037 × 291 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(3.7776)
= $43.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y201)
= Exp(a + b × X201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7649 + -0.0037 × 291 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(3.5986)
= $36.55
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.09% per annum.
- SW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $42.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 2.9845
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0097
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 157.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0097) – 1
= 3.94%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y191)
= Exp(a + b × X191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9845 + 0.0026 × 276 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(3.7204)
= $41.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y191)
= Exp(a + b × X191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9845 + 0.0026 × 276 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(3.6817)
= $39.71
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9845 + 0.0026 × 294 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(3.7671)
= $43.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9845 + 0.0026 × 294 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(3.7284)
= $41.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 157.95% per annum.
- SW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.