Stock Price Trends

Amcor PLC (AMCR)

Amcor plc is an Australian-American, UK-domiciled packaging company. It develops and produces flexible packaging, rigid containers, specialty cartons, closures and services for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical-device, home and personal-care, and other products.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.12% per annum.
  • AMCR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $9.63 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.87 (8.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.88% per annum.
  • AMCR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMCR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: December 5, 2024

a = 1.4447

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0461

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.26%

August 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y824)
= Exp(a + b × X824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4447 + 0.0005 × 1,196 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.1916)
= $8.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y824)
= Exp(a + b × X824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4447 + 0.0005 × 1,196 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.0071)
= $7.44

December 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4447 + 0.0005 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.4571)
= $11.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4447 + 0.0005 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.2726)
= $9.71

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.12% per annum.
  • AMCR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $9.63 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.87 (8.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 20, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 3.3398

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0378

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0378) – 1
= 16.33%

August 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3398 + -0.0006 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.4598)
= $11.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3398 + -0.0006 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.3085)
= $10.06

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3398 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.3074)
= $10.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3398 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.1561)
= $8.64

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.88% per annum.
  • AMCR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.