Amcor PLC (AMCR)
Amcor plc is an Australian-American, UK-domiciled packaging company. It develops and produces flexible packaging, rigid containers, specialty cartons, closures and services for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical-device, home and personal-care, and other products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.12% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $9.63 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.87 (8.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.88% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMCR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: December 5, 2024
a = 1.4447
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0461
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.26%
August 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y824)
= Exp(a + b × X824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4447 + 0.0005 × 1,196 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.1916)
= $8.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y824)
= Exp(a + b × X824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4447 + 0.0005 × 1,196 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.0071)
= $7.44
December 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4447 + 0.0005 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.4571)
= $11.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4447 + 0.0005 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.2726)
= $9.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.12% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $9.63 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.87 (8.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.3398
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0378
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0378) – 1
= 16.33%
August 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3398 + -0.0006 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.4598)
= $11.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3398 + -0.0006 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.3085)
= $10.06
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3398 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.3074)
= $10.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3398 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.1561)
= $8.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.88% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.