Amcor PLC (AMCR)
Amcor plc is an Australian-American, UK-domiciled packaging company. It develops and produces flexible packaging, rigid containers, specialty cartons, closures and services for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical-device, home and personal-care, and other products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.08% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $10.38 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.37 (3.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.73% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMCR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2021
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 2.6015
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0617
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0617) – 1
= 28.01%
August 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y513)
= Exp(a + b × X513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6015 + -0.0002 × 743 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.5535)
= $12.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y513)
= Exp(a + b × X513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6015 + -0.0002 × 743 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.3065)
= $10.04
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6015 + -0.0002 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.3239)
= $10.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6015 + -0.0002 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.0769)
= $7.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.08% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $10.38 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.37 (3.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.4812
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.38%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4812 + 0.0004 × 1,499 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.2274)
= $9.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4812 + 0.0004 × 1,499 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.0757)
= $7.97
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4812 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.3727)
= $10.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4812 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.2210)
= $9.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.73% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.