Packaging Corp of America (PKG)
Packaging Corporation of America is an American manufacturing company based in Lake Forest, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.50% per annum.
- PKG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $194.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.93% per annum.
- PKG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PKG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.8005
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0470
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0470) – 1
= 20.67%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8005 + 0.0008 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.8032)
= $121.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8005 + 0.0008 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.6154)
= $101.03
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8005 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.3400)
= $208.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8005 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.1521)
= $172.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.50% per annum.
- PKG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $194.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.4905
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0377
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0377) – 1
= 16.28%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4905 + 0.0010 × 1,376 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.9125)
= $135.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4905 + 0.0010 × 1,376 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.7617)
= $116.94
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4905 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(5.3529)
= $211.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4905 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(5.2021)
= $181.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.93% per annum.
- PKG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.