International Paper (IP)
The International Paper Company (NYSE: IP) is an American pulp and paper company, the largest such company in the world. The company is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.58% per annum.
- IP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $46.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 106.75% per annum.
- IP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 27, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.1930
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0591
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0591) – 1
= 26.69%
April 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1930 + 0.0009 × 1,368 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(3.4798)
= $32.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1930 + 0.0009 × 1,368 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(3.2432)
= $25.62
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1930 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(3.8693)
= $47.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1930 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(3.6327)
= $37.82
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.58% per annum.
- IP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $46.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 1, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 0.2121
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0562
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 106.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0562) – 1
= 25.20%
February 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2121 + 0.0020 × 1,648 + 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(3.6039)
= $36.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2121 + 0.0020 × 1,648 – 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(3.3792)
= $29.35
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2121 + 0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(3.9541)
= $52.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2121 + 0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(3.7294)
= $41.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 106.75% per annum.
- IP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.