Textron Inc (TXT)
Textron Inc. is an American industrial conglomerate based in Providence, Rhode Island. Textron's subsidiaries include Arctic Cat, Bell Textron, Textron Aviation (which itself includes the Beechcraft, Hawker, and Cessna brands), and Lycoming Engines.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.92% per annum.
- TXT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $88.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.90 (18.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.94% per annum.
- TXT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2021
End date: July 26, 2023
a = 4.2834
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0629
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -1.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.59%
April 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y492)
= Exp(a + b × X492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2834 + -0.0001 × 714 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.3711)
= $79.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y492)
= Exp(a + b × X492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2834 + -0.0001 × 714 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.1197)
= $61.54
July 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2834 + -0.0001 × 1,538 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.3273)
= $75.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2834 + -0.0001 × 1,538 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.0759)
= $58.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.92% per annum.
- TXT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $88.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.90 (18.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2023
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 2.6618
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0411
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.89%
April 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y994)
= Exp(a + b × X994 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6618 + 0.0010 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.2377)
= $69.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y994)
= Exp(a + b × X994 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6618 + 0.0010 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.0731)
= $58.74
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6618 + 0.0010 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.6199)
= $101.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6618 + 0.0010 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.4553)
= $86.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.94% per annum.
- TXT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.