BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)
BWX Technologies, Inc. manufactures and sells nuclear components in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.45% per annum.
- BWXT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $88.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.59% per annum.
- BWXT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BWXT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2022
End date: February 27, 2024
a = 2.9628
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0347
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0347) – 1
= 14.89%
May 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9628 + 0.0008 × 1,089 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.9376)
= $51.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9628 + 0.0008 × 1,089 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.7988)
= $44.65
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9628 + 0.0008 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.4913)
= $89.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9628 + 0.0008 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.3525)
= $77.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.45% per annum.
- BWXT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $88.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 19, 2022
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 2.5511
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0462
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0462) – 1
= 20.28%
December 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5511 + 0.0011 × 1,320 + 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(4.1000)
= $60.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5511 + 0.0011 × 1,320 – 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(3.9154)
= $50.17
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5511 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(4.6561)
= $105.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5511 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(4.4715)
= $87.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.59% per annum.
- BWXT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.