Moog Inc (MOG.A)
Moog Inc. designs, manufactures and integrates precision motion and fluid controls and control systems for original equipment manufacturers and end users in the aerospace, defense and industrial markets globally. The company is headquartered in East Aurora, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.80% per annum.
- MOG.A price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $172.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.12% per annum.
- MOG.A price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MOG.A price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 2.7666
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.17%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7666 + 0.0013 × 1,204 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.3924)
= $80.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7666 + 0.0013 × 1,204 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.1921)
= $66.16
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7666 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.1805)
= $177.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7666 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.9802)
= $145.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.80% per annum.
- MOG.A price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $172.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 2.3420
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0433
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0433) – 1
= 18.92%
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3420 + 0.0015 × 1,445 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.6242)
= $101.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3420 + 0.0015 × 1,445 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.4509)
= $85.71
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3420 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(5.2031)
= $181.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3420 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(5.0299)
= $152.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.12% per annum.
- MOG.A price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.