AeroVironment Inc (AVAV)
AeroVironment, Inc. is a leading provider of innovative unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies, primarily serving government agencies, defense contractors, and commercial markets. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, the company specializes in designing, developing, and supporting a wide array of aerial and ground-based robotic systems, enabling effective data collection and situational awareness in various applications. With a strong focus on research and development, AeroVironment is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced surveillance and reconnaissance solutions in an increasingly complex security landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.50% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of January 12, 2026 was $370.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 389.72% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of January 12, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $18.45 (4.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVAV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2021
End date: December 4, 2024
a = 3.8035
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1328) – 1
= 70.07%
December 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y227)
= Exp(a + b × X227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8035 + 0.0010 × 328 + 2 × 0.1328)
= Exp(4.4060)
= $81.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y227)
= Exp(a + b × X227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8035 + 0.0010 × 328 – 2 × 0.1328)
= Exp(3.8750)
= $48.18
December 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8035 + 0.0010 × 1,421 + 2 × 0.1328)
= Exp(5.5289)
= $251.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8035 + 0.0010 × 1,421 – 2 × 0.1328)
= Exp(4.9979)
= $148.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.50% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of January 12, 2026 was $370.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2025
End date: November 11, 2025
a = -1.7327
b = 0.0044
s = 0.1234
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0044) – 1
= 389.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1234) – 1
= 63.79%
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7327 + 0.0044 × 1,493 + 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(5.0123)
= $150.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7327 + 0.0044 × 1,493 – 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(4.5189)
= $91.73
November 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7327 + 0.0044 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(6.1875)
= $486.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7327 + 0.0044 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(5.6941)
= $297.10
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 389.72% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of January 12, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $18.45 (4.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.