AeroVironment Inc (AVAV)
AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, supports and operates a portfolio of products and services for government agencies and businesses. The company is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.88% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $181.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.21 (6.58%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.73% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.65 (0.36%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVAV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.0234
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0783
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0783) – 1
= 36.76%
September 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0234 + 0.0011 × 1,239 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.5080)
= $90.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0234 + 0.0011 × 1,239 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.1950)
= $66.35
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0234 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(5.1373)
= $170.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0234 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.8242)
= $124.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.88% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $181.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.21 (6.58%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 14, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.0193
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0674
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 83.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0674) – 1
= 30.97%
June 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0193 + 0.0017 × 1,497 + 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.6491)
= $104.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0193 + 0.0017 × 1,497 – 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.3794)
= $79.79
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0193 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(5.1975)
= $180.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0193 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.9277)
= $138.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.73% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.65 (0.36%).