National Presto Industries Inc (NPK)
National Presto Industries Inc. provides household goods and small appliances, and defense and security products primarily in North America. The company is headquartered in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.05% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $85.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.50% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NPK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 19, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.5913
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0426
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0426) – 1
= 18.59%
May 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y764)
= Exp(a + b × X764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5913 + 0.0004 × 1,106 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(4.1537)
= $63.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y764)
= Exp(a + b × X764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5913 + 0.0004 × 1,106 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(3.9831)
= $53.68
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5913 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(4.4642)
= $86.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5913 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(4.2937)
= $73.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.05% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $85.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 1.4027
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 83.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.10%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4027 + 0.0017 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.3189)
= $75.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4027 + 0.0017 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.2410)
= $69.48
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4027 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.4785)
= $88.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4027 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.4007)
= $81.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.50% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.