National Presto Industries Inc (NPK)
National Presto Industries Inc. provides household goods and small appliances, and defense and security products primarily in North America. The company is headquartered in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.16% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $77.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.47% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.79 (3.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NPK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 19, 2022
End date: May 21, 2024
a = 3.6231
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0425
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0425) – 1
= 18.53%
May 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6231 + 0.0004 × 1,025 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.1528)
= $63.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6231 + 0.0004 × 1,025 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(3.9828)
= $53.67
May 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6231 + 0.0004 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.4708)
= $87.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6231 + 0.0004 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(4.3008)
= $73.76
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.16% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $77.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2024
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 6.9327
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0316
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.49%
March 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9327 + -0.0015 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.4996)
= $89.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9327 + -0.0015 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.3731)
= $79.29
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9327 + -0.0015 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.3353)
= $76.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9327 + -0.0015 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(4.2087)
= $67.27
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.47% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.79 (3.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.