Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)
TransDigm Group is a publicly traded aerospace manufacturing company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TransDigm develops and manufactures engineered aerospace components.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.62% per annum.
- TDG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $1,234.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.65 (0.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.40% per annum.
- TDG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TDG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 4.6777
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0546
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0546) – 1
= 24.39%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6777 + 0.0014 × 1,142 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(6.3843)
= $592.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6777 + 0.0014 × 1,142 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(6.1660)
= $476.30
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6777 + 0.0014 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(7.3243)
= $1,516.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6777 + 0.0014 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(7.1061)
= $1,219.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.62% per annum.
- TDG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $1,234.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.65 (0.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 21, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 9.3874
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0142
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0142) – 1
= 5.86%
May 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3874 + -0.0012 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(7.2364)
= $1,389.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3874 + -0.0012 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(7.1795)
= $1,312.19
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3874 + -0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(7.1546)
= $1,280.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3874 + -0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(7.0976)
= $1,209.10
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.40% per annum.
- TDG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.