Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)
TransDigm Group is a publicly traded aerospace manufacturing company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TransDigm develops and manufactures engineered aerospace components.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.47% per annum.
- TDG price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $1,318.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 123.08% per annum.
- TDG price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TDG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.5691
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0556
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.90%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y842)
= Exp(a + b × X842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5691 + 0.0014 × 1,222 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(6.3866)
= $593.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y842)
= Exp(a + b × X842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5691 + 0.0014 × 1,222 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(6.1643)
= $475.46
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5691 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(7.2300)
= $1,380.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5691 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(7.0077)
= $1,105.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.47% per annum.
- TDG price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $1,318.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.1815
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0370
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 123.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.96%
September 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1815 + 0.0022 × 1,594 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(6.7595)
= $862.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1815 + 0.0022 × 1,594 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(6.6115)
= $743.58
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1815 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(7.2695)
= $1,435.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1815 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(7.1215)
= $1,238.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 123.08% per annum.
- TDG price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.