Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is the largest military shipbuilding company in the United States as well as a provider of professional services to partners in government and industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.26% per annum.
- HII price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $273.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.42% per annum.
- HII price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.25 (3.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2020
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.9069
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0862
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0862) – 1
= 41.15%
June 22, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9069 + 0.0004 × 332 + 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(5.2005)
= $181.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9069 + 0.0004 × 332 – 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(4.8558)
= $128.49
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9069 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(5.7462)
= $313.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9069 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(5.4015)
= $221.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.26% per annum.
- HII price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $273.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.5286
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0407
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.69%
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5286 + -0.0011 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(5.7554)
= $315.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5286 + -0.0011 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(5.5925)
= $268.41
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5286 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(5.5748)
= $263.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5286 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(5.4120)
= $224.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.42% per annum.
- HII price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.25 (3.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.