Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is the largest military shipbuilding company in the United States as well as a provider of professional services to partners in government and industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.57% per annum.
- HII price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $250.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.38% per annum.
- HII price at the close of May 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.40 (0.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 19, 2020
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.8775
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0878
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0878) – 1
= 42.07%
June 19, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8775 + 0.0004 × 406 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(5.2043)
= $182.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8775 + 0.0004 × 406 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.8532)
= $128.15
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8775 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(5.7334)
= $309.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8775 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(5.3823)
= $217.52
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.57% per annum.
- HII price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $250.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.9150
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 41.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.20%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9150 + 0.0009 × 1,405 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.3642)
= $213.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9150 + 0.0009 × 1,405 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.1315)
= $169.27
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9150 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.7636)
= $318.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9150 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.5309)
= $252.37
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.38% per annum.
- HII price at the close of May 9, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.40 (0.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.