Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is an American aerospace company based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The company manufactures components for jet engines, fasteners and titanium structures for aerospace applications, and forged aluminum wheels for heavy trucks.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 134.47% per annum.
- HWM price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $81.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.14 (1.42%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48,992.20% per annum.
- HWM price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HWM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: April 9, 2024
a = 0.0435
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0394
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 134.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0394) – 1
= 17.06%
September 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0435 + 0.0023 × 1,595 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.8462)
= $46.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0435 + 0.0023 × 1,595 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.6887)
= $39.99
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0435 + 0.0023 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(4.3178)
= $75.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0435 + 0.0023 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(4.1603)
= $64.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 134.47% per annum.
- HWM price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $81.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.14 (1.42%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = -26.6008
b = 0.0170
s = 0.0407
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0170) – 1
= 48,992.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.70%
April 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-26.6008 + 0.0170 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.2074)
= $67.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-26.6008 + 0.0170 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.0445)
= $57.08
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-26.6008 + 0.0170 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.4791)
= $88.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-26.6008 + 0.0170 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.3161)
= $74.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48,992.20% per annum.
- HWM price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.