Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) is an American multinational aerospace and defense technology company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.39% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $470.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.46% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $23.18 (5.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.2214
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0514
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0514) – 1
= 22.85%
May 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2214 + -0.0001 × 1,033 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(6.2559)
= $521.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2214 + -0.0001 × 1,033 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(6.0501)
= $424.15
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2214 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(6.2034)
= $494.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2214 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.9976)
= $402.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.39% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $470.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 8.2426
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0256
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.79%
April 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2426 + -0.0012 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.2162)
= $500.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2426 + -0.0012 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.1138)
= $452.04
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2426 + -0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.1034)
= $447.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2426 + -0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.0010)
= $403.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.46% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $23.18 (5.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.