Stock Price Trends

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) is a leading American aerospace and defense technology company, specializing in advanced systems and solutions for the U.S. government and allied nations. With a robust portfolio encompassing areas such as autonomous systems, cyber, C4ISR, and space, Northrop Grumman plays a critical role in enhancing national security and advancing technological innovation. The company leverages its deep expertise in engineering and cutting-edge technology to deliver mission-critical capabilities while maintaining a strong commitment to sustainability and corporate responsibility.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.94% per annum.
  • NOC price at the close of January 9, 2026 was $618.82 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $72.41 (13.25%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.38% per annum.
  • NOC price at the close of January 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: July 9, 2025

a = 6.0406

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0590

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0590) – 1
= 26.64%

February 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0406 + 0.0001 × 413 + 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(6.1915)
= $488.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0406 + 0.0001 × 413 – 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(5.9553)
= $385.80

July 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0406 + 0.0001 × 1,640 + 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(6.2888)
= $538.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0406 + 0.0001 × 1,640 – 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(6.0526)
= $425.23

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.94% per annum.
  • NOC price at the close of January 9, 2026 was $618.82 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $72.41 (13.25%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: January 9, 2026

a = 5.7443

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0600

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.38%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0600) – 1
= 27.14%

May 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y580)
= Exp(a + b × X580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 841 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7443 + 0.0003 × 841 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(6.1333)
= $460.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y580)
= Exp(a + b × X580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 841 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7443 + 0.0003 × 841 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.8931)
= $362.53

January 9, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7443 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(6.4475)
= $631.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7443 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(6.2073)
= $496.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.38% per annum.
  • NOC price at the close of January 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.