Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) is an American multinational aerospace and defense technology company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.46% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $480.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.81% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2022
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 6.2339
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0527
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0527) – 1
= 23.46%
May 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2339 + -0.0001 × 1,121 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(6.2630)
= $524.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2339 + -0.0001 × 1,121 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(6.0522)
= $425.05
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2339 + -0.0001 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(6.2152)
= $500.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2339 + -0.0001 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(6.0044)
= $405.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.46% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $480.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 5.7735
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0321
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0321) – 1
= 13.70%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7735 + 0.0002 × 1,464 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(6.1393)
= $463.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7735 + 0.0002 × 1,464 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(6.0109)
= $407.87
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7735 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(6.2135)
= $499.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7735 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(6.0851)
= $439.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.81% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.