Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) is a leading American aerospace and defense technology company, specializing in advanced systems and solutions for the U.S. government and allied nations. With a robust portfolio encompassing areas such as autonomous systems, cyber, C4ISR, and space, Northrop Grumman plays a critical role in enhancing national security and advancing technological innovation. The company leverages its deep expertise in engineering and cutting-edge technology to deliver mission-critical capabilities while maintaining a strong commitment to sustainability and corporate responsibility.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.97% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $599.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $53.71 (9.84%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 92.55% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: July 11, 2025
a = 6.0378
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0590
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0590) – 1
= 26.64%
February 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y339)
= Exp(a + b × X339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 494 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0378 + 0.0001 × 494 + 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(6.1954)
= $490.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y339)
= Exp(a + b × X339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 494 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0378 + 0.0001 × 494 – 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(5.9592)
= $387.31
July 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0378 + 0.0001 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(6.2938)
= $541.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0378 + 0.0001 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(6.0576)
= $427.35
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.97% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $599.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $53.71 (9.84%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2025
End date: October 16, 2025
a = 3.1737
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0327
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 92.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.96%
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1737 + 0.0018 × 1,643 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.1883)
= $487.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1737 + 0.0018 × 1,643 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.0576)
= $427.37
October 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1737 + 0.0018 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.5061)
= $669.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1737 + 0.0018 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.3754)
= $587.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 92.55% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.