Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW)
Curtiss-Wright Corporation designs, manufactures and repairs precision components and engineering products and services primarily for the aerospace, defense, general industrial and power generation markets worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.50% per annum.
- CW price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $277.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.37 (4.28%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.06% per annum.
- CW price at the close of May 9, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.60 (1.69%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2020
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.2709
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0678
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0678) – 1
= 31.17%
March 12, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y211)
= Exp(a + b × X211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2709 + 0.0006 × 307 + 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(4.6042)
= $99.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y211)
= Exp(a + b × X211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2709 + 0.0006 × 307 – 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(4.3329)
= $76.17
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2709 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(5.5824)
= $265.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2709 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(5.3111)
= $202.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.50% per annum.
- CW price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $277.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.37 (4.28%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 3.1830
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.38%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1830 + 0.0013 × 1,595 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(5.3059)
= $201.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1830 + 0.0013 × 1,595 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(5.2255)
= $185.95
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1830 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(5.6076)
= $272.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1830 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(5.5271)
= $251.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.06% per annum.
- CW price at the close of May 9, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.60 (1.69%).