AAR Corp (AIR)
AAR Corp. The company is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 144.32% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $66.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $473.99 (87.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.11% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AIR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2020
End date: June 25, 2021
a = 2.1412
b = 0.0024
s = 0.1563
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 144.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1563) – 1
= 86.85%
March 12, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y157)
= Exp(a + b × X157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1412 + 0.0024 × 227 + 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(3.0093)
= $20.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y157)
= Exp(a + b × X157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1412 + 0.0024 × 227 – 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(2.3842)
= $10.85
June 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1412 + 0.0024 × 697 + 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(4.1596)
= $64.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1412 + 0.0024 × 697 – 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(3.5344)
= $34.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 144.32% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $66.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $473.99 (87.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 23, 2020
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.2316
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0957
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0957) – 1
= 46.65%
November 23, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2316 + 0.0005 × 483 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.6874)
= $39.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2316 + 0.0005 × 483 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.3046)
= $27.24
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2316 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(4.4214)
= $83.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2316 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(4.0385)
= $56.74
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.11% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.