AAR Corp (AIR)
AAR Corp. is a leading provider of aviation services and supply chain management solutions headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois. With a robust portfolio that includes aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services, logistics support, and inventory management, AAR serves both commercial and government sectors globally. The company leverages its extensive industry expertise and innovative technologies to deliver efficient and cost-effective solutions, positioning itself as a key player in the aerospace and defense markets. By focusing on operational excellence and customer satisfaction, AAR Corp. continues to enhance its competitive advantage in a rapidly evolving landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 276.05% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of November 3, 2025 was $85.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.06 (16.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 72.17% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of November 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AIR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2025
End date: July 31, 2025
a = -1.9048
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0426
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 276.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0426) – 1
= 18.60%
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9048 + 0.0036 × 1,605 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(4.0049)
= $54.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9048 + 0.0036 × 1,605 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(3.8343)
= $46.26
July 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9048 + 0.0036 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(4.4585)
= $86.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9048 + 0.0036 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(4.2879)
= $72.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 276.05% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of November 3, 2025 was $85.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.06 (16.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2025
End date: November 3, 2025
a = 1.7280
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0417
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.16%
June 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7280 + 0.0015 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.3002)
= $73.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7280 + 0.0015 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.1333)
= $62.39
November 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7280 + 0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.5279)
= $92.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7280 + 0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.3611)
= $78.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 72.17% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of November 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.