Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. is a government contractor for the US Department of Defense. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.33% per annum.
- KTOS price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $68.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.09 (51.35%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,231.14% per annum.
- KTOS price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KTOS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: June 26, 2025
a = 1.3061
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0853
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0853) – 1
= 40.64%
September 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y523)
= Exp(a + b × X523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3061 + 0.0013 × 760 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(2.4466)
= $11.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y523)
= Exp(a + b × X523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3061 + 0.0013 × 760 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(2.1056)
= $8.21
June 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3061 + 0.0013 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(3.7279)
= $41.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3061 + 0.0013 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(3.3869)
= $29.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.33% per annum.
- KTOS price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $68.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.09 (51.35%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2025
End date: August 26, 2025
a = -8.6938
b = 0.0071
s = 0.0490
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0071) – 1
= 1,231.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0490) – 1
= 21.63%
May 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6938 + 0.0071 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(3.5670)
= $35.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6938 + 0.0071 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(3.3712)
= $29.11
August 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6938 + 0.0071 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.3472)
= $77.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6938 + 0.0071 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.1513)
= $63.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,231.14% per annum.
- KTOS price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.