Stock Price Trends

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. is a government contractor for the US Department of Defense. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.33% per annum.
  • KTOS price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $68.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.09 (51.35%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,231.14% per annum.
  • KTOS price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KTOS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: June 26, 2025

a = 1.3061

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0853

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0853) – 1
= 40.64%

September 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y523)
= Exp(a + b × X523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3061 + 0.0013 × 760 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(2.4466)
= $11.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y523)
= Exp(a + b × X523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3061 + 0.0013 × 760 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(2.1056)
= $8.21

June 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3061 + 0.0013 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(3.7279)
= $41.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3061 + 0.0013 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(3.3869)
= $29.57

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.33% per annum.
  • KTOS price at the close of August 26, 2025 was $68.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.09 (51.35%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 8, 2025
End date: August 26, 2025

a = -8.6938

b = 0.0071

s = 0.0490

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0071) – 1
= 1,231.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0490) – 1
= 21.63%

May 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6938 + 0.0071 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(3.5670)
= $35.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6938 + 0.0071 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(3.3712)
= $29.11

August 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6938 + 0.0071 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.3472)
= $77.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.6938 + 0.0071 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.1513)
= $63.52

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,231.14% per annum.
  • KTOS price at the close of August 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.