Hexcel Corporation (HXL)
Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures and markets structural materials for use in the aerospace, space, and commercial and industrial defense markets. The company is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.00% per annum.
- HXL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $72.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
- HXL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HXL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 16, 2020
End date: April 9, 2024
a = 3.5327
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1207
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1207) – 1
= 62.09%
March 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y214)
= Exp(a + b × X214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5327 + 0.0005 × 312 + 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(3.9156)
= $50.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y214)
= Exp(a + b × X214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5327 + 0.0005 × 312 – 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(3.4327)
= $30.96
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5327 + 0.0005 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(4.5890)
= $98.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5327 + 0.0005 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(4.1060)
= $60.70
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.00% per annum.
- HXL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $72.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2020
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.7538
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0799
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1
= 37.66%
November 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y385)
= Exp(a + b × X385 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7538 + 0.0003 × 557 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.0728)
= $58.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y385)
= Exp(a + b × X385 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7538 + 0.0003 × 557 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(3.7532)
= $42.66
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7538 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.4355)
= $84.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7538 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.1159)
= $61.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
- HXL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.