Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured financial assets in the commercial, single-family, and multi-family real estate markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.27% per annum.
- ABR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $13.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.20 (10.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.22% per annum.
- ABR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023
a = 2.7658
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0956
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0956) – 1
= 46.61%
February 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7658 + -0.0003 × 574 + 2 × 0.0956)
= Exp(2.8041)
= $16.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7658 + -0.0003 × 574 – 2 × 0.0956)
= Exp(2.4215)
= $11.26
June 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7658 + -0.0003 × 1,410 + 2 × 0.0956)
= Exp(2.5813)
= $13.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7658 + -0.0003 × 1,410 – 2 × 0.0956)
= Exp(2.1987)
= $9.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.27% per annum.
- ABR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $13.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.20 (10.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.0795
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1039
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1039) – 1
= 51.50%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0795 + 0.0003 × 1,050 + 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(2.5932)
= $13.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0795 + 0.0003 × 1,050 – 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(2.1778)
= $8.83
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0795 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(2.8194)
= $16.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0795 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(2.4039)
= $11.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.22% per annum.
- ABR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.