Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)
Two Harbors Investment Corp. The company is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.69% per annum.
- TWO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $13.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.87% per annum.
- TWO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TWO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.0817
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0601
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0601) – 1
= 27.15%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0817 + 0.0003 × 1,395 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(2.5552)
= $12.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0817 + 0.0003 × 1,395 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(2.3150)
= $10.12
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0817 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(2.6639)
= $14.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0817 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(2.4237)
= $11.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.69% per annum.
- TWO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $13.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.9777
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0301
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0301) – 1
= 12.79%
November 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9777 + -0.0003 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(2.6208)
= $13.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9777 + -0.0003 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(2.5004)
= $12.19
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9777 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(2.5737)
= $13.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9777 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(2.4533)
= $11.63
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.87% per annum.
- TWO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.