Stock Price Trends

Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)

Two Harbors Investment Corp. The company is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 11.80% per annum.
  • TWO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $13.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 65.25% per annum.
  • TWO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TWO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 1.9866

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0584

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0584) – 1
= 26.31%

March 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9866 + 0.0003 × 1,325 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(2.5084)
= $12.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9866 + 0.0003 × 1,325 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(2.2748)
= $9.73

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9866 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(2.6609)
= $14.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9866 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(2.4273)
= $11.33

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 11.80% per annum.
  • TWO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $13.75 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 0.0936

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0247

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.41%

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0936 + 0.0014 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(2.5058)
= $12.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0936 + 0.0014 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(2.4068)
= $11.10

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0936 + 0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(2.6531)
= $14.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0936 + 0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(2.5541)
= $12.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 65.25% per annum.
  • TWO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.