KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) is a mortgage real estate investment trust that specializes in originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate assets. Headquartered in New York, the company utilizes its extensive industry expertise and deep relationships to manage a diversified portfolio of high-quality real estate investments. KREF aims to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns to its investors by capitalizing on market opportunities in the commercial real estate sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.36% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $8.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.00 (44.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.23% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KREF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: February 2, 2024
a = 1.4039
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0623
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0623) – 1
= 28.29%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y594)
= Exp(a + b × X594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4039 + 0.0008 × 863 + 2 × 0.0623)
= Exp(2.2267)
= $9.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y594)
= Exp(a + b × X594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4039 + 0.0008 × 863 – 2 × 0.0623)
= Exp(1.9776)
= $7.23
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4039 + 0.0008 × 1,193 + 2 × 0.0623)
= Exp(2.4937)
= $12.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4039 + 0.0008 × 1,193 – 2 × 0.0623)
= Exp(2.2446)
= $9.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.36% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $8.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.00 (44.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: October 24, 2025
a = 2.1799
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0984
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0984) – 1
= 48.26%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y594)
= Exp(a + b × X594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1799 + 0.0000 × 863 + 2 × 0.0984)
= Exp(2.4057)
= $11.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y594)
= Exp(a + b × X594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1799 + 0.0000 × 863 – 2 × 0.0984)
= Exp(2.0119)
= $7.48
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1799 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0984)
= Exp(2.4379)
= $11.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1799 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0984)
= Exp(2.0441)
= $7.72
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.23% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.