Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY)
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, invests in and finances residential and commercial assets. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.70% per annum.
- NLY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $19.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.18% per annum.
- NLY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.4760
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0463
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0463) – 1
= 20.35%
October 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4760 + 0.0008 × 1,529 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(2.8475)
= $17.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4760 + 0.0008 × 1,529 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(2.6623)
= $14.33
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4760 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.0960)
= $22.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4760 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(2.9107)
= $18.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.70% per annum.
- NLY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $19.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.1362
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0281
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0281) – 1
= 11.89%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1362 + 0.0005 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(2.9248)
= $18.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1362 + 0.0005 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(2.8125)
= $16.65
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1362 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(3.0278)
= $20.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1362 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(2.9154)
= $18.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.18% per annum.
- NLY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.