Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading diversified capital manager specializing in investing and financing residential and commercial real estate assets. Headquartered in New York, the company primarily operates through a range of investment strategies, including mortgage-backed securities and other real estate-related investments. With a strong focus on generating attractive risk-adjusted returns, Annaly leverages its expertise in capital markets to navigate complex economic environments, making it a key player in the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector. The company's commitment to transparency and shareholder value enhances its appeal to institutional investors seeking stable income and growth opportunities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.47% per annum.
- NLY price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $21.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.76% per annum.
- NLY price at the close of March 13, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.81 (3.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: March 13, 2026
a = 2.1504
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0561
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0561) – 1
= 25.14%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y500)
= Exp(a + b × X500 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1504 + 0.0005 × 724 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(2.6319)
= $13.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y500)
= Exp(a + b × X500 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1504 + 0.0005 × 724 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(2.4077)
= $11.11
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1504 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(3.1931)
= $24.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1504 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(2.9689)
= $19.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.47% per annum.
- NLY price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $21.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: March 13, 2026
a = 1.1952
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0293
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0293) – 1
= 12.45%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1952 + 0.0011 × 1,481 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(2.8653)
= $17.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1952 + 0.0011 × 1,481 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(2.7480)
= $15.61
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1952 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.2385)
= $25.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1952 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.1212)
= $22.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.76% per annum.
- NLY price at the close of March 13, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.81 (3.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.