Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
The Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, commonly known as ADM, is an American multinational food processing and commodities trading corporation founded in 1902 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. The company operates more than 270 plants and 420 crop procurement facilities worldwide, where cereal grains and oilseeds are processed into products used in food, beverage, nutraceutical, industrial, and animal feed markets worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.67% per annum.
- ADM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $63.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.61% per annum.
- ADM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.9041
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0909
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0909) – 1
= 43.84%
March 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y657)
= Exp(a + b × X657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9041 + -0.0004 × 952 + 2 × 0.0909)
= Exp(4.6722)
= $106.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y657)
= Exp(a + b × X657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9041 + -0.0004 × 952 – 2 × 0.0909)
= Exp(4.3087)
= $74.34
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9041 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0909)
= Exp(4.2933)
= $73.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9041 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0909)
= Exp(3.9297)
= $50.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.67% per annum.
- ADM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $63.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.2639
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0408
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.72%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2639 + 0.0010 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.0623)
= $58.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2639 + 0.0010 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(3.8992)
= $49.36
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2639 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.2573)
= $70.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2639 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.0941)
= $59.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.61% per annum.
- ADM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.