Stock Price Trends

Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)

Ingredion Incorporated (Ticker: INGR) is a leading global provider of ingredient solutions, specializing in the production and sale of starches, sweeteners, and other customized food and industrial ingredients. Headquartered in Westchester, Illinois, the company serves a diverse range of sectors including food, beverage, and pharmaceuticals, leveraging its extensive portfolio to offer innovative solutions that meet complex customer needs. With a commitment to sustainable practices and operational excellence, Ingredion is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging market trends and continue driving growth in an evolving global landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.33% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of November 25, 2025 was $107.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.16 (3.73%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.60% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of November 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 15, 2025
End date: November 3, 2025

a = 6.6218

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0153

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0153) – 1
= 6.31%

May 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6218 + -0.0010 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.9739)
= $144.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6218 + -0.0010 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.9127)
= $136.01

November 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6218 + -0.0010 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.7968)
= $121.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6218 + -0.0010 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.7356)
= $113.93

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.33% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of November 25, 2025 was $107.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.16 (3.73%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 27, 2025
End date: November 25, 2025

a = 8.6211

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0215

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 8.99%

August 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6211 + -0.0022 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(4.9122)
= $135.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6211 + -0.0022 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(4.8262)
= $124.73

November 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6211 + -0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(4.7175)
= $111.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6211 + -0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(4.6314)
= $102.66

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.60% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of November 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.