Stock Price Trends

Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)

Ingredion Incorporated (Ticker: INGR) is a leading global provider of ingredient solutions, specializing in the production and sale of starches, sweeteners, and other customized food and industrial ingredients. Headquartered in Westchester, Illinois, the company serves a diverse range of sectors including food, beverage, and pharmaceuticals, leveraging its extensive portfolio to offer innovative solutions that meet complex customer needs. With a commitment to sustainable practices and operational excellence, Ingredion is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging market trends and continue driving growth in an evolving global landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.33% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of November 11, 2025 was $109.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.69 (3.26%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.65% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of November 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 15, 2025
End date: November 3, 2025

a = 6.6373

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0153

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0153) – 1
= 6.31%

May 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6373 + -0.0010 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.9739)
= $144.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6373 + -0.0010 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.9127)
= $136.01

November 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6373 + -0.0010 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.7968)
= $121.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6373 + -0.0010 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.7356)
= $113.93

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.33% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of November 11, 2025 was $109.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.69 (3.26%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 17, 2025
End date: November 3, 2025

a = 12.1949

b = -0.0041

s = 0.0049

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0041) – 1
= -77.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0049) – 1
= 1.98%

October 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.1949 + -0.0041 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0049)
= Exp(4.8154)
= $123.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.1949 + -0.0041 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0049)
= Exp(4.7958)
= $121.00

November 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.1949 + -0.0041 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0049)
= Exp(4.7456)
= $115.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.1949 + -0.0041 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0049)
= Exp(4.7260)
= $112.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.65% per annum.
  • INGR price at the close of November 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.