Stock Price Trends

Bunge Limited (BG)

Bunge Limited is a global food and agribusiness company. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.60% per annum.
  • BG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $80.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.52 (1.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.26% per annum.
  • BG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2024
End date: April 16, 2025

a = 6.3812

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0542

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.21%

April 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3812 + -0.0012 × 1,435 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(4.8199)
= $123.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3812 + -0.0012 × 1,435 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(4.6031)
= $99.79

April 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3812 + -0.0012 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(4.3812)
= $79.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3812 + -0.0012 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(4.1644)
= $64.35

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.60% per annum.
  • BG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $80.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.52 (1.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 5, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 1.4544

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0261

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.26%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 11.00%

February 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4544 + 0.0016 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.2923)
= $73.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4544 + 0.0016 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.1879)
= $65.89

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4544 + 0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.4250)
= $83.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4544 + 0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.3207)
= $75.24

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.26% per annum.
  • BG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.