Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR)
Darling Ingredients Inc. develops, produces and sells natural ingredients from edible and non-edible bio-nutrients. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.58% per annum.
- DAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.83% per annum.
- DAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.2284
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1012
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1012) – 1
= 49.90%
February 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2284 + -0.0008 × 948 + 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(4.6285)
= $102.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2284 + -0.0008 × 948 – 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(4.2237)
= $68.29
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2284 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(3.8855)
= $48.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2284 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(3.4806)
= $32.48
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.58% per annum.
- DAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.0431
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0901
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0901) – 1
= 43.41%
May 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,384 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0431 + -0.0013 × 1,384 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(4.3594)
= $78.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,384 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0431 + -0.0013 × 1,384 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.9989)
= $54.54
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0431 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.7642)
= $43.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0431 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.4036)
= $30.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.83% per annum.
- DAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.