Stock Price Trends

Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR)

Darling Ingredients Inc. develops, produces and sells natural ingredients from edible and non-edible bio-nutrients. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.58% per annum.
  • DAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.83% per annum.
  • DAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 5.2284

b = -0.0008

s = 0.1012

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1012) – 1
= 49.90%

February 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2284 + -0.0008 × 948 + 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(4.6285)
= $102.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2284 + -0.0008 × 948 – 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(4.2237)
= $68.29

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2284 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(3.8855)
= $48.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2284 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(3.4806)
= $32.48

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.58% per annum.
  • DAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.58 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 10, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 6.0431

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0901

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0901) – 1
= 43.41%

May 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,384 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0431 + -0.0013 × 1,384 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(4.3594)
= $78.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,384 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0431 + -0.0013 × 1,384 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.9989)
= $54.54

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0431 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.7642)
= $43.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0431 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.4036)
= $30.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.83% per annum.
  • DAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.