American Financial Group Inc (AFG)
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is a leading insurance holding company based in Cincinnati, Ohio, specializing in property and casualty insurance products primarily within the United States. With a diverse portfolio that includes customized insurance solutions and innovative risk management services, AFG is well-positioned to address the evolving needs of its clients across various sectors. The company is recognized for its strong financial performance and commitment to providing exceptional customer service, making it a prominent player in the competitive insurance landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.21% per annum.
- AFG price at the close of October 13, 2025 was $138.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.30% per annum.
- AFG price at the close of October 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AFG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: August 26, 2025
a = 4.5503
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0677
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0677) – 1
= 31.10%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y203)
= Exp(a + b × X203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5503 + 0.0002 × 295 + 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(4.7344)
= $113.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y203)
= Exp(a + b × X203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5503 + 0.0002 × 295 – 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(4.4636)
= $86.80
August 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5503 + 0.0002 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(4.9789)
= $145.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5503 + 0.0002 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(4.7081)
= $110.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.21% per annum.
- AFG price at the close of October 13, 2025 was $138.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2023
End date: October 13, 2025
a = 4.2614
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.76%
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y641)
= Exp(a + b × X641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2614 + 0.0004 × 931 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.7089)
= $110.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y641)
= Exp(a + b × X641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2614 + 0.0004 × 931 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.4957)
= $89.63
October 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2614 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.0362)
= $153.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2614 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.8231)
= $124.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.30% per annum.
- AFG price at the close of October 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.