Stock Price Trends

Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)

Genworth Financial, Inc. offers insurance products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.07% per annum.
  • GNW price at the close of July 8, 2025 was $7.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 106.74% per annum.
  • GNW price at the close of July 8, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 20, 2022
End date: June 17, 2025

a = 1.3765

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0563

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0563) – 1
= 25.25%

December 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 894 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3765 + 0.0003 × 894 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(1.7899)
= $5.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 894 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3765 + 0.0003 × 894 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(1.5648)
= $4.78

June 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3765 + 0.0003 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(2.0962)
= $8.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3765 + 0.0003 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(1.8711)
= $6.50

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.07% per annum.
  • GNW price at the close of July 8, 2025 was $7.81 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: July 8, 2025

a = -1.5859

b = 0.0020

s = 0.0336

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 106.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0336) – 1
= 14.39%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5859 + 0.0020 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(1.9238)
= $6.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5859 + 0.0020 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(1.7894)
= $5.99

July 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5859 + 0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(2.1128)
= $8.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5859 + 0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(1.9784)
= $7.23

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 106.74% per annum.
  • GNW price at the close of July 8, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.