Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)
Horace Mann Educators Corporation, is a multi-line insurance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.72% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $34.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.41 (6.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.45% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 2.0077
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0411
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.88%
May 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0077 + 0.0009 × 1,396 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.3693)
= $29.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0077 + 0.0009 × 1,396 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.2047)
= $24.65
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0077 + 0.0009 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.6900)
= $40.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0077 + 0.0009 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.5255)
= $33.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.72% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $34.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.41 (6.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 29, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.3466
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0322
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0322) – 1
= 13.74%
January 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3466 + -0.0005 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(3.6547)
= $38.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3466 + -0.0005 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(3.5259)
= $33.99
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3466 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(3.5724)
= $35.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3466 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(3.4436)
= $31.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.45% per annum.
- HMN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.