Assurant Inc (AIZ)
Assurant, Inc. is a global provider of risk management products and services with headquarters in New York City.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.79% per annum.
- AIZ price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $173.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $25.99 (13.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.07% per annum.
- AIZ price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.37 (0.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AIZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2023
End date: April 10, 2024
a = 3.0227
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0356
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0356) – 1
= 15.30%
February 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y902)
= Exp(a + b × X902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0227 + 0.0013 × 1,309 + 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(4.7746)
= $118.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y902)
= Exp(a + b × X902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0227 + 0.0013 × 1,309 – 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(4.6322)
= $102.74
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0227 + 0.0013 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(5.2985)
= $200.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0227 + 0.0013 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(5.1561)
= $173.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.79% per annum.
- AIZ price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $173.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $25.99 (13.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.1686
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0200
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0200) – 1
= 8.32%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1686 + -0.0006 × 1,669 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.2413)
= $188.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1686 + -0.0006 × 1,669 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.1613)
= $174.39
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1686 + -0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.1520)
= $172.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1686 + -0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(5.0720)
= $159.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.07% per annum.
- AIZ price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.37 (0.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.