Albany International Corporation (AIN)
Albany International Corp. The company is headquartered in Rochester, New Hampshire.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.64% per annum.
- AIN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $92.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.78% per annum.
- AIN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2022
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 4.8364
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0557
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0557) – 1
= 24.98%
November 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8364 + -0.0002 × 1,191 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.6885)
= $108.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8364 + -0.0002 × 1,191 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.4656)
= $86.97
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8364 + -0.0002 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.5531)
= $94.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8364 + -0.0002 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.3301)
= $75.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.64% per annum.
- AIN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $92.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.5171
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.31%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5171 + 0.0000 × 1,320 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.5729)
= $96.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5171 + 0.0000 × 1,320 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.4047)
= $81.83
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5171 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.5621)
= $95.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5171 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.3939)
= $80.96
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.78% per annum.
- AIN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.