Albany International Corporation (AIN)
Albany International Corp. The company is headquartered in Rochester, New Hampshire.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.44% per annum.
- AIN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $90.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.90 (5.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.90% per annum.
- AIN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2022
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 5.2424
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.20%
November 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2424 + -0.0005 × 1,261 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.7221)
= $112.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2424 + -0.0005 × 1,261 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.5216)
= $91.98
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2424 + -0.0005 × 1,663 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.5243)
= $92.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2424 + -0.0005 × 1,663 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.3237)
= $75.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.44% per annum.
- AIN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $90.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.90 (5.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.4509
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0418
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0418) – 1
= 18.20%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,390 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4509 + 0.0000 × 1,390 + 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(4.5684)
= $96.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,390 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4509 + 0.0000 × 1,390 – 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(4.4012)
= $81.55
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4509 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(4.5790)
= $97.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4509 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(4.4118)
= $82.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.90% per annum.
- AIN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.