Hillenbrand Inc (HI)
Hillenbrand, Inc. is a diversified industrial company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Batesville, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.28% per annum.
- HI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $44.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.53% per annum.
- HI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.7324
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0788
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0788) – 1
= 37.05%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y364)
= Exp(a + b × X364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7324 + 0.0000 × 527 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.9084)
= $49.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y364)
= Exp(a + b × X364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7324 + 0.0000 × 527 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.5933)
= $36.35
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7324 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.9538)
= $52.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7324 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.6386)
= $38.04
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.28% per annum.
- HI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $44.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 6.1394
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0428
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0428) – 1
= 18.70%
March 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1394 + -0.0013 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.9825)
= $53.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1394 + -0.0013 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.8111)
= $45.20
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1394 + -0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.7932)
= $44.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1394 + -0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.6218)
= $37.41
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.53% per annum.
- HI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.